Cory Smith – Baltimore Sun https://www.baltimoresun.com Baltimore Sun: Your source for Baltimore breaking news, sports, business, entertainment, weather and traffic Tue, 11 Nov 2025 13:54:09 +0000 en-US hourly 30 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 https://www.baltimoresun.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/baltimore-sun-favicon.png?w=32 Cory Smith – Baltimore Sun https://www.baltimoresun.com 32 32 208788401 NRF points to ‘momentum’ for holiday shopping that’s expected to pass $1 trillion https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/11/nrf-points-to-momentum-for-holiday-shopping-thats-expected-to-pass-1-trillion/ Tue, 11 Nov 2025 13:54:09 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11794014 The National Retail Federation pointed to October sales growth as consumer “momentum” heading into the holiday shopping season.

October retail sales grew 5% from last year and were up in most categories, led by digital products like books and games, clothing and sporting goods, according to the NRF.

The October report — out on Monday — comes on the heels of the NRF’s annual holiday forecast that called for sales to pass the $1 trillion mark for the first time.

“We are bullish about spending this holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a media call last week.

Shay and his NRF colleagues acknowledged low consumer sentiment. But they said that doesn’t seem to be keeping folks from spending on special occasions, including this holiday season. He said consumers, who account for nearly 70% of national economic activity, have been surprisingly active despite inflation fears from tariffs.

“A lot of that is due to the creative work of retailers to avoid passing on any price increases. A lot of that is due to consumers pulling sales forward, inventory coming in, pre-tariff inventory, the stop-and-start nature of the tariffs themselves all contributed,” Shay said.

“But nevertheless, we’ve seen spending behavior that is very strong through the year. But we know that inside of that strength, consumers are being much more price sensitive.”
Mark Mathews, NRF chief economist and executive director of research, said inflation is changing how people spend, rather than the total amount they are spending.

He said as prices on products rise, Americans will likely accommodate by pulling back on eating out or other forms of recreation.

The NRF is forecasting holiday sales, from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, to increase between 3.7% and 4.2% and reach a total between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. Americans spent $976 billion last year. By comparison, holiday sales totaled just over $600 billion a decade ago.

There are challenges to holiday spending this year, according to the NRF. The government shutdown, likely ending this week, is one, though Mathews said spending affected by the shutdown is likely to recover once it’s over.

Weather always has the potential to be a thorn for holiday shoppers, he said. And tariffs add uncertainty and price pressure for consumers and retailers, the NRF said.

The NRF and Hackett Associates, a maritime trade and supply chain consulting firm, reported that holiday store shelves are well-stocked. Import activity is expected to fall over the last couple of months of the year.

Hackett Associates partner Daniel Hackett said on Monday that retailers usually bring in most of their holiday merchandise by August or September. So, a slowdown in November and December isn’t unusual.

But retailers tried to beat tariffs as best they could this year, and the peak of import activity arrived a month or so earlier than normal. He said the November and December drop in imports is also expected to be steeper than usual because of the pull-forward of cargo.

Trade policy is more settled than it was earlier this year, although plenty of questions remain. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are now before the Supreme Court.

“Even with these recent trade agreements, we’re looking at elevated tariff levels compared to where we were in January,” Hackett said.

The effective tariff rate is around 18%, according to the Yale Budget Lab. That’s the highest since 1934 and up from 2.4% at the beginning of the year.

NRF officials said retailers have done what they can to blunt the effect of tariffs on customers. Mathews said on last week’s call that retailers are expected to be pretty aggressive with holiday promotions.

He also said consumers are indicating they’re holding off for Black Friday sales.

Shay said Americans are planning and budgeting for holiday spending. And they are making it a priority.

But seasonal hiring might be at its lowest level in more than 15 years, he said. The NRF is forecasting between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal hires, down from 442,000 last year. That seems to reflect the weakness in the jobs market.

But Mathews said unemployment remains in check, and wages have now exceeded inflation for more than 30 months. He said consumers remain in pretty good shape, even if he recognizes the struggles felt by lower-income households.

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11794014 2025-11-11T08:54:09+00:00 2025-11-11T08:54:09+00:00
USAA launches 5-year, $500 million effort to help veterans, military families https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/07/usaa-launches-5-year-500-million-effort-to-help-veterans-military-families/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 20:59:46 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11787717 With Veterans Day on Tuesday, USAA is launching a national movement backed by $500 million over five years to help veterans and military spouses achieve meaningful careers, financial security and, ultimately, well-being.

“A simple ‘thank you’ for military service can mean a whole lot, but the intentional actions, the advocacy and support can really change lives and secure brighter futures,” said Jenna Saucedo-Herrera, USAA’s head of corporate impact. “And that’s what we’re trying to do here.”

The initiative is called “Honor Through Action,” and it builds off USAA’s “Face the Fight” coalition to prevent veteran suicide.

The money, being supplied by USAA, will be spent on targeted philanthropy, policy advocacy, investments, procurement and other activities meant to advance economic outcomes for veterans and military spouses.

“That is a big, audacious mission that our CEO has set for us,” Saucedo-Herrera said.

She mentioned that just about a third of junior enlisted families feel financially stable. The military spouse unemployment rate is three to four times greater than that of civilian counterparts.

Fewer than one in five transitioning service members feel fully prepared to secure civilian employment, USAA said. “Honor Through Action” is meant to help those folks with career navigation, employer engagement, skills development and community support.

And the company — which provides insurance, banking and retirement solutions to veterans and eligible family members — plans to partner with public, private and nonprofit groups to support the effort.

“A lot of the challenges around meaningful careers, financial security and overall well-being continue to persist,” Saucedo-Herrera said. “And so, what USAA is planning to do is to lead from the front and function as a quarterback of sorts, to, of course, provide the capital … but also mobilizing an alliance to shine a light on the potential opportunities here and ideally inspire others to walk alongside us.”

Saucedo-Herrera said “Honor Through Action” is directly related to USAA’s “Face the Fight,” now two years in with 300 partners. She said “Face the Fight” is on track to save 6,500 lives by 2030.

“We started with a very targeted effort under well-being, which is Face the Fight,” she said. “We know that mental health and veteran suicides are the top concern area for our membership today. But we also understand that you can’t just focus there.”

Honor Through Action tackles the problem further upstream, Saucedo-Herrera said. Meaningful careers provide financial security, driving well-being that might ultimately save a veteran’s life.

Saucedo-Herrera said USAA is in the process of building its alliances for “Honor Through Action.” The company hopes to announce some partners next month and mobilize them early next year.

Some partners might want to contribute via military affiliate hiring or another commitment. Others might want to contribute to nonprofits that are already doing work to help military families and veterans.

“This isn’t about a campaign. It’s not about a one-off idea,” Saucedo-Herrera said. “We want to drive systemic change together.”

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11787717 2025-11-07T15:59:46+00:00 2025-11-07T15:59:46+00:00
New York Fed: Americans’ household debt has hit a record $18.59 trillion https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/07/new-york-fed-americans-household-debt-has-hit-a-record-18-59-trillion/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 19:01:51 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11787022 Americans are now carrying $18.59 trillion in debt, according to the New York Fed’s quarterly report on household debt.

That’s a record high, as are four of five subcategories — mortgages, auto loans, student loans and credit cards. Only home equity borrowing isn’t at a record.

Total household debt increased by $197 billion, or 1%, in the third quarter. Credit card balances rose by $24 billion to reach $1.23 trillion. Students have $1.65 trillion in loan debt.

WalletHub noted that overall household debt is $990 billion below the 2008 peak when adjusting for inflation.

Bankrate Senior Industry Analyst Ted Rossman said the debt-to-income ratio is still pretty low.

“A lot of this tracks back to that K-shaped economy. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer,” Rossman said. “There’s a lot of inequity the way the economy is right now. Big picture, I’m actually more upbeat than a lot of people are, or certainly than sentiment is.”

Americans are downbeat about inflation and high interest rates, he said. Households are feeling financial pressures, especially those on the lower or middle portions of the income spectrum.

The job market is weakening, but wages are still growing. And the unemployment rate, at last report, was still a fairly healthy 4.3%.

“So, I understand that it doesn’t feel great. But in some respects, we would expect these (household debt) numbers to grow over time, just because the population grows, the economy grows, something like credit cards, more people are using cards, fewer people are using cash,” Rossman said. “So, I’m not as alarmed as the headline (figure) might have you believe.”

He said delinquencies have tailed off a bit for both credit cards and auto loans since they peaked in the middle of last year.

Credit card balances have risen 60% since the beginning of 2021, but Rossman said they were artificially depressed then because of stimulus money and less consumer spending.

Delinquencies have been low on mortgages, he said. Student loan delinquencies are lagging behind those for other types of credit, because student loan repayment was paused for several years.

Rossman said a quarter of federal student loan borrowers are either in default or about to be, and that has a spillover effect on other finances for young people just getting started on their careers.

“Because if you can’t pay the student loans, you might also be at risk of being behind on the car loan or the credit card, or maybe you’re running up more credit card debt because you’re just trying to make ends meet,” he said.

The New York Fed doesn’t make a distinction in its figures between credit card balances and credit card debt.

“I wish they would do more to distinguish between what’s truly debt carried month to month and what’s paid off right away,” Rossman said. “We know in our research that it’s about half of cardholders pay in full every month. … That is a huge fork in the road.”

Those who pay in full use cards for rewards and convenience. Those who don’t carry really expensive debt.

Rossman had some advice for people who find themselves in credit card debt.

He recommended applying for a 0% balance-transfer card that can pause the interest clock for around two years. You’ll need to pay off the debt in that window if you want to avoid interest payments.

“If you’re disciplined about paying it back, the advice would be don’t add new purchases, because it’s hard to hit a moving target,” he said.

Nonprofit credit counseling is another good option, especially if you have a lower credit score or a lot of debt, he said. Rossman mentioned Money Management International and GreenPath as options.

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11787022 2025-11-07T14:01:51+00:00 2025-11-07T14:01:51+00:00
Making progress in the war on drugs? Most Americans in 25 years think so https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/07/making-progress-in-the-war-on-drugs-most-americans-in-25-years-think-so/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 14:59:13 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11786455 The largest share of Americans in 25 years say the nation is making progress in the fight against illegal drugs.

A Gallup poll found 45% of Americans say there is progress in the war on drugs, up from a record-low 24% a couple of years ago.

The optimism is driven by a huge swing in Republican sentiment — from 12% in 2023 seeing progress to 74% now. Around a third of both Democrats and independents say they’ve seen progress, too.

The results come from Gallup’s annual crime poll that also found fewer Americans think overall crime is increasing.

Republicans are much more likely to view drugs as a big problem. Though down from 2023, more than half of Republicans still see drugs as an extremely serious problem. Just a third of independents and about one-fifth of Democrats share those concerns.

People see drugs as a much bigger problem nationally than locally. More than seven in 10 people said drugs are at least a very serious problem nationally. Fewer than 30% said the same of their local area.

Support for legal marijuana has declined, though it remains broad. Sixty-four percent of people support the legalization of marijuana, down from 70% a couple of years ago.

“I think one of the reasons people believe we’re doing a better job dealing with illicit drugs in this country is because we apparently are, and the media’s been covering that,” said Peter Loge, director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University. He noted a drop in overdose deaths from the spike during the pandemic.

Loge also said Republican sentiment is likely buoyed by President Donald Trump’s policies, including the immigration crackdown, attacks on alleged drug smuggling boats and the designation of drug cartels as terrorists.

Republicans are probably more concerned about drugs, he said, because Trump is making the interdiction of illicit drugs a priority, and the media they consume is more focused on the topics of drugs and crime.

“Scholars have long recognized the agenda-setting function of the media,” Loge said. “The media don’t tell us what to think, but they tell us what to think about.”

But another expert didn’t share the public’s opinion that the nation is making progress against illegal drugs.

“I don’t think we could say that,” said Dr. Jeff Singer, a practicing general surgeon and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. “It’s clear from the Gallup poll that a lot of people think it has, but if you look at the data, the overdose rate is still higher than it was before the spike during the COVID pandemic.”

Overdose deaths have fallen lately, but only to near 2019 levels. Singer said we might just be seeing a return to the long-term trend line that was disrupted, like many other things, by the pandemic.

The overdose death rate has been on a steady upward trend for decades, he said. The only thing that has changed has been which drugs are causing the overdoses.

Drug supply chains were disrupted by the pandemic, and heroin virtually disappeared and gave way to fentanyl, Singer said.

Fentanyl, a man-made opioid, is 50 times more potent than heroin and can be deadly in very small amounts. it is mixed into other drugs, and Americans often overdose because they don’t realize fentanyl is present or don’t realize how much fentanyl they are ingesting.

Now, he said, heroin is making a comeback. A law-and-order approach might not stop the flow or usage of deadly drugs, he said.

“The harder the enforcement, the harder the drug,” Singer said. “Strict enforcement incentivizes the cartels and whoever else is dealing in drugs to come up with more potent forms, because, for the risk you’re taking, it makes it more worth the risk, because you could sell more of it. You could subdivide it into more units for sale, and also, if it’s more potent, you could usually make it smaller and easier to smuggle.”

He called it the “iron law of prohibition.”

“So, for example, during the alcohol prohibition, they weren’t smuggling in beer and wine, they were smuggling in whiskey,” Singer said. “And so, in 2012, the cartels figured out if you add a little fentanyl, which you could make in a lab just like you could make meth, if you add a little fentanyl to the heroin, you could smuggle in the heroin in much tinier pouches.”

Singer said Trump’s policies aren’t helping to keep dangerous drugs off American streets. He voiced concerns over the president “being judge, jury, and executioner” with the Caribbean boat strikes.

David Bier, an immigration and border security expert and Singer’s Cato colleague, recently said that most illicit drugs arrive in the U.S. through the Pacific Ocean or over land, not from the Caribbean. A minimal amount of cocaine originates in Venezuela, Bier said.

“But it’s a tiny fraction compared to other South American countries, primarily Colombia,” he said.

Fentanyl is the biggest concern for the U.S., and Bier said Venezuela plays no role in fentanyl production or transit. Most fentanyl comes from Mexico, he said.

Singer said there’s so much money to be made from the illicit drug trade that there will always be a supply as long as there’s demand.

“The drug war hasn’t been working since 1970,” he said. “It’s not going to suddenly start working now.”

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11786455 2025-11-07T09:59:13+00:00 2025-11-07T09:59:13+00:00
Supermarket sticker shock: Beef and coffee prices are rising fast in the US https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/07/supermarket-sticker-shock-beef-and-coffee-prices-are-rising-fast-in-the-us/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 14:06:04 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11784138 Grocery bills continue to rise, even if the drivers of supermarket inflation evolve.

Eggs used to be the “star offender in the grocery aisle,” said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst. They were cited as the poster child for food inflation. Now, egg prices are down and rising beef and coffee prices are the top concerns for many.

“I think that very often people can look at one or two things in the grocery store and generalize that to their experience,” Hamrick said. “But even myself, the other day I needed to purchase some food for a meal I was going to make for family, and I ended up purchasing $150 worth of food that filled two traditional paper grocery bags.”

Grocery prices are up 2.7% from a year ago, according to the latest consumer price index. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes saw monthly increases in September, the most recent month that’s been reported.

Cereals and bakery products, nonalcoholic beverages, meats, poultry, fish, and eggs all increased. Dairy and related products fell in price. Prices of fruits and vegetables were unchanged.

Inflation at the grocery store is a lot better than it was a few years ago, but it certainly hasn’t gone away. Grocery inflation peaked at more than 13% in August 2022. It was down to 1.6% at this time last year. But grocery inflation has been above 2% since March.

Taking a longer view, grocery prices are up about 25% over the last five years. They have slightly outpaced wages and overall inflation, but they’re all in the same ballpark.

Checking the receipt

A dozen eggs costs around $3.50 now, a sharp decline from more than $6 earlier this year. Eggs now cost around what they did this time last year. The avian influenza was mostly responsible for skyrocketing egg prices.

Meanwhile, ground beef is up to $6.33 a pound, an increase of more than 11% from a year ago.

Ground coffee prices are up a whopping 40% or so from a year ago. Droughts and heavy rain have reportedly reduced coffee harvests in growing countries. More than 99% of America’s coffee must be imported, according to the National Coffee Association. So, coffee prices are also likely to be affected more by higher tariffs.

The U.S. has placed a 50% tariff rate on Brazil, which supplies about a third of America’s coffee beans.

Hamrick noted that even Halloween candy prices were up this year. Chocolate prices are reportedly up around 30%.

Higher food prices are a quintessential kitchen table issue for Americans. Tariffs are having an effect, with many products lining grocery store shelves being imported. But Hamrick said tariffs aren’t the only triggers for food inflation.

“Lack of sufficient immigration to help get food out of the fields in the growing areas of the United States is key,” he said.

David Anderson, an agricultural economist, said beef is certainly more expensive. That’s driven by tighter supplies.

“We’re producing less, but we also continue to have very good consumer demand for beef,” Anderson said. “And so, you put those together, and you get higher prices. And I think that goes across the board as we look at beef items, really across all the different cuts. Certainly, ground beef is much higher.”

Most of the beef the U.S. imports comes from Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Mexico.

But Americans mostly consume domestically produced beef. The U.S. imports about 15% of our beef production, Anderson said.

The nation has its fewest number of beef cows since the early 1960s. He said droughts, previously low cattle prices, and rising costs all contributed to the shrinking herd.

Reversing that trend takes time, even if there’s clearly consumer demand.

“That calf that was born in the spring of ‘25 is not going to have its first calf until the spring of ‘27. And then that animal that’s born in the spring of ‘27 is not going to hit their full-grown weight until late in the fall of 2029,” Anderson said.

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11784138 2025-11-07T09:06:04+00:00 2025-11-07T09:06:04+00:00
State of Lung Cancer report shows progress being made against deadly disease https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/07/state-of-lung-cancer-report-shows-progress-being-made-against-deadly-disease/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 14:02:41 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11783983 The survival rate for lung cancer is on the rise, as more Americans are getting earlier diagnoses that could save their lives.

The American Lung Association released its eighth annual State of Lung Cancer report this past week, noting the five-year survival rate has gone from 18% to nearly 30% in under a decade.

But more people die of lung cancer than any other kind of cancer, and there’s still a lot of work to do, according to the American Lung Association.

“There’s been a lot of progress in efforts to end lung cancer. There’s increases in the rate of lung cancer survival, and there’s increases in the rates of early detection, which are both really good news,” said Laura Kate Bender, vice president of nationwide advocacy and public policy at the American Lung Association. “We’re also noting though that that progress is under threat. Cuts to staff and to funding at CDC and NIH, cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act are a threat to that continued progress.”

Protecting cancer research and health care coverage are priorities for the American Lung Association, Bender said. And the organization is pushing hard to get more states to require insurance coverage of comprehensive biomarker testing for lung cancer.

Seventeen states do, while five more states require some coverage. The American Lung Association said biomarker testing can help doctors identify better, more-targeted treatment options with fewer side effects.

Nearly 227,000 Americans will be diagnosed with lung cancer this year, according to the American Lung Association. Tobacco use accounts for the majority of cases, but Bender said exposure to radon gas and air pollution are also leading factors.

The American Lung Association report offers state-level breakdowns of lung cancer rates, screening performance and more. Utah has the nation’s best lung cancer rate, while Kentucky has the worst at more than 2.3 times the incidence rate of Utah. Survival rates were best in Rhode Island (37.6%) and worst in Alabama (22.7%).

Nationally, less than 30% of cases are diagnosed at an early stage, when the five-year survival rate can hit 65%. More than four in 10 cases aren’t caught until a late stage, when the survival rate is only 10%. Early diagnosis rates were best in Rhode Island (35.5%) and worst in Hawaii (21.8%).

Bender encouraged anyone who qualifies to get lung cancer screening. She said you can check your qualification at savedbythescan.org.

An annual low-dose CT scan for those at high risk can reduce the lung cancer death rate by up to 20%, the American Lung Association said.

“Catching this disease early is so powerful in terms of improving the survival rate,” Bender said.

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11783983 2025-11-07T09:02:41+00:00 2025-11-07T09:02:41+00:00
Typical age of first-time homebuyers in US hits a record high at 40 https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/07/typical-age-of-first-time-homebuyers-in-us-hits-record-high-at-the-big-4-0/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 13:52:10 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11784976 The age for a typical first-time homebuyer hit 40 for the first time in long-term tracking by the National Association of Realtors.

And the share of first-time buyers dropped to a record low of 21%.

The age progression of first-time homebuyers:

  • The median age of first-time buyers was in the upper 20s in the 1980s.
  • It was 28 years old as recently as 1991.
  • Fifteen years ago, the typical first-time buyer was 30.
  • Five years ago, people bought their first home at age 33.
  • Last year, it had risen to 38.
  • And now, it sits at 40.

At the same time, the typical age of repeat buyers reached a record high of 62.

Jessica Lautz, NAR’s deputy chief economist and vice president of research, said the challenges for young buyers are likely to have economic effects for generations to come.

“It means 10 years of lost housing wealth gains for first-time homebuyers,” she said. “But it also means that they’re building wealth at a slower pace, which could impact their future generations.”

NAR recently released the 2025 edition of its flagship report, a profile of homebuyers and sellers that it has published since the early 1980s. The report covers housing transactions between July 2024 and June 2025.

Limited supply, rising prices and high mortgage rates are constraints on the housing market. But Lautz said factors outside of the housing market are also big hurdles for first-time buyers.

“Even successful first-time homebuyers said high rent, student loan debt, credit cards, car loans, childcare costs, all of these things were factors that held them back from being able to save,” she said.

A typical resale home costs more than $100,000 above what it would have cost five years ago. NAR’s latest figures showed the median existing-home price hit $415,200 in September. That was the 27th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

Mortgage rates topped 7% in recent years. They have eased recently, to a bit over 6% now. But that’s still a far cry from the 3% range available five years ago.

Lautz said there have been small signs of relief for people hoping to buy their first home.

“Very small improvement that we’ve seen since summer,” she said. “We have seen that mortgage interest rates have come down a little bit. We have seen that more existing housing inventory is coming into the market. I say that with big hesitations though, because … summer home prices continue to go up.”

People are waiting longer than ever to sell their homes. The new NAR report found the median time in a home before selling hit 11 years.

Lautz said that’s the “lock-in effect” at play. Homeowners don’t want to give up their lower mortgage rate, which limits housing supply on the market.

Homeowners have historically made changes after six to seven years, she said. But Lautz said retirees are dominating the housing market now.

Fewer housing transactions stem from life changes, like jobs and growing families, and more are falling into the “optional” category, she said.

“They’re saying, ‘I’m moving because I want to be close to friends and family.’ So, to me, that’s chasing the grandbaby, perhaps,” Lautz said. “That’s what we’re really seeing.”

A record-high 26% of buyers paid cash, giving them an upper hand in a competitive market.

The share of homebuyers with children under the age of 18 fell to an all-time low of 24%. Lautz said older buyers might have grown children. But she said the rising costs of childcare and falling birth rates could also be factors there.

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11784976 2025-11-07T08:52:10+00:00 2025-11-11T08:51:14+00:00
ADP releases snapshot of US jobs market as government reports remain paused https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/06/adp-releases-snapshot-of-us-jobs-market-as-government-reports-remain-paused/ Thu, 06 Nov 2025 14:24:54 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11783115 An ADP report shows private-sector employment jumped by 42,000 in October, a snapshot of the jobs market as the government shutdown threatens another month of federal economic data.

The job growth was driven by large companies, with small and mid-sized companies shedding more workers than they added.

The ADP data, pulled from its customers’ payrolls and released Wednesday, offers a breakdown of 10 industries. Half saw growth while half saw job losses.

Education, health care, trade, transportation and utilities led the growth.

Companies shed jobs in professional business services, information and leisure and hospitality.

Most of the new jobs, 33,000, were added in service sectors. Just 9,000 jobs were added in goods-producing sectors.

ADP said this marked the first employment increase since July after a revised loss of 29,000 jobs in September and a smaller loss in August. Pay growth was also flat at 4.5% for job-stayers and 6.7% for job-changers.

“This is the best we’re going to be able to do,” Colorado State University economist Stephan Weiler said of the ADP employment report as a fill-in for the monthly jobs report from the government.

The government reports are on hold because of the shutdown. The last Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report was released two months ago and covered August.

At the time, employers had added 22,000 jobs the previous month. And the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, its highest since 2021 by a slight margin.

Until the shutdown is over, there won’t be an official update on the health of the jobs market from the government.

Is the ADP report an adequate replacement?

“In the short term, it’s not a bad substitute,” labor economist Aaron Sojourner said.

But he said it’s not a representative sample of the national labor market. And he said ADP relies on the BLS for the right weights to apply to its proprietary data to make its data more representative. Those weights aren’t outdated yet, he said. But the longer ADP goes without BLS data, the hard it becomes. ADP also omits government employment.

ADP’s sample, 26 million private-sector employees, is just about one-sixth the size of the nation’s full workforce.

Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst, said the BLS data is the gold standard.

“And that’s not to be dismissive or derisive about the ADP data. It’s just not the same,” he said.

Hamrick said the ADP report is a useful piece of the puzzle, but the lack of BLS data limits visibility.

“If you’re a central banker, if you’re a consumer, which most people are, if you’re a business leader, if you’re an investor, you can’t stop making decisions,” he said. “But you may defer some of your decisions until you have better clarity.”

Business professor Jay Zagorsky said ADP tends to service medium and large firms but not giant or tiny companies. That, too, is a limiting factor in its data, he said.

“If you’re a giant firm, you’re not going to use, necessarily, ADP. It’s probably just as effective to do it in-house. And if you’re a very small firm, say micro firm, one or two employees, five employees, ADP is too much of an overkill,” said Zagorsky, a professor with the Questrom School of Business at Boston University. “So, you’re missing both ends of the market.”

Sojourner said BLS runs both an employer survey and a household survey. There’s nothing in the ADP report that replicates the household survey, which produces the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate and more.

He didn’t get too excited over the addition of 42,000 jobs reported by ADP.

Growth is good, but the month-to-month swing wasn’t enough to write home about, Sojourner said.

“These are all estimates. They’re all imperfect. They’re all noisy. There’s a margin of error in all of this,” he said.

Zagorsky said the growth reflected in the report wasn’t widespread across industries. Big companies, such as utilities, drove the overall increases.

“So, while there are bright spots in the economy, this is not the overall economy is doing well,” he said. “Only a few sectors and a few geographic areas seem to be doing well.”

Weiler said the basic features of the ADP report look correct, even if it lacks the size and scope of the government data.

“In other words, goods-producing sectors lost jobs, and that’s been a continuing trend. Service industry has been gaining, and that’s also been a trend,” he said. “And the wage rates look about like they’ve been.”

Weiler said the upswing in jobs is worth noting simply because it offers information to the Federal Reserve that is struggling to map its rate cut strategy to support employment and keep inflation in check.

Another rate cut in December, after cuts in the last two months, is far from a given, he said.

Sojourner, with the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, said the jobs market has stagnated. Companies are uncertain what’s coming at them, and they’re not making any big moves.

“If you don’t have a job, it’s really hard to find a new job,” he said.

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11783115 2025-11-06T09:24:54+00:00 2025-11-06T09:24:54+00:00
House committee chair ‘beginning to worry big-time’ about veterans during shutdown https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/05/house-committee-chair-beginning-to-worry-big-time-over-veterans-during-shutdown/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 15:01:55 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11780887 Rep. Mike Bost, R-Ill., chairman of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, said he’s worried about veterans being affected by the government shutdown.

He said the disruptions to Department of Veterans Affairs care and benefits have been minimal, but he said the risks increase the longer the shutdown continues.

“But now, we’re beginning to worry big-time,” Bost said.

The shutdown, in its second month, has left 37,000 VA employees furloughed or working without pay.

VA health care is still available. Veterans can get care at VA’s 170 medical centers and roughly 1,200 outpatient sites.

The Veterans Health Administration, a part of the larger VA, is funded with advance appropriations. VA health care services are funded through the current fiscal year that began Oct. 1.

Benefits considered to be mandatory spending are still going to veterans, on autopilot, much like Social Security.

But Bost said contracted or grant-based community programs have been idled by the shutdown. One example is the Fox grant program for suicide prevention efforts.

“Community-based organizations won’t get their funding they need to deliver mental health support to veterans and continue to work to decrease veteran suicide, which is still at 17 per day, as of our last numbers,” Bost said.

Same goes for some community providers offering life-saving services and support to homeless veterans, he said, adding that disabled veterans can’t enroll in education and job training programs.

“All veterans with service-connected disabilities are left in limbo also, because they can’t get nursing home care, or home care,” Bost said. “All this is really just despicable. Really is.”

He said he’s been working with VA Secretary Doug Collins and fellow members of Congress to ensure veterans’ services face as little disruption as possible. But he said there will be challenges, stress and strain on both veterans and VA employees until the shutdown ends.

“As soon as we actually open the government, all this goes away,” Bost said. “And the sweat … and the mental strain that is being put on these families goes away, as well, because now they know those services are available to them.”

Bost blamed Democrats for the shutdown, urging them to drop their demands and pass the clean continuing resolution to temporarily reopen the government at current funding levels.

Democrats are withholding support of the CR, demanding the reversal of Medicaid changes that were part of the GOP “One Big Beautiful Bill” and an extension of the Affordable Care Act enhanced tax credits.

“I don’t necessarily disagree with many of the arguments that they say they want to talk about, but the thing is, you can’t talk about it unless we’re back in,” Bost said.

House Veterans’ Affairs Committee Ranking Member Mark Takano, a Democrat, said in an emailed statement that the multi-year funding provided to VA ensures the shutdown should have a minimal impact on veterans’ health care and benefits.

Takano decried the “politicization of shutdown messaging and intentional delay of certain services.” He said, for example, VA is “failing to process and disburse” education and housing benefits provided to veterans, including those with service-connected disabilities.

“But veterans are also feeling the same shutdown impacts that everyday Americans are,” Takano said.

Both he and Bost noted that more than million veterans receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits.

Takano said millions of veterans rely on Medicaid and Medicare, too.

“Republicans are using veterans as bargaining chips in their game of partisan politic — Americans deserve better,” he said. “The House hasn’t met in six weeks. Speaker [Mike] Johnson needs to step up.”

Bost, however, pointed the finger at Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries.

“Every day that we move forward, it might be better for Chuck Schumer, but it’s sure not better for our veterans,” Bost said.

Veterans make up about a quarter of the federal government’s civilian workforce. Last week, officials with veterans’ advocacy groups said they’re hearing concerns and confusion from veterans about the shutdown.

“We’ve done some polling, and we’ve done some talking to a number of veterans, and far and wide, of course, just like every other American, they’re very upset,” Mission Roll Call CEO Jim Whaley said. “They’re very concerned about it.”

Nearly 60% of people responding to a Mission Roll Call survey said they were a veteran or military family being impacted by the shutdown.

Despite the partisan stalemate over the shutdown, Bost said his colleagues on both sides of the aisle want to take care of veterans.

He called it an “obligation and a commitment.”

“It is a debt that we owe, regardless of party, regardless of how you feel about your government at any given time,” Bost said.

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11780887 2025-11-05T10:01:55+00:00 2025-11-07T09:11:50+00:00
Gallup poll: Fewest since 2001 say crime is increasing in America https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/04/gallup-poll-fewest-since-2001-say-crime-is-increasing-in-america/ Tue, 04 Nov 2025 14:17:08 +0000 https://www.baltimoresun.com/?p=11777583 Crime concerns are easing among Americans.

Gallup’s annual crime poll, conducted in the first half of October, found 49% of Americans say crime is increasing. That’s down from 64% a year ago and 77% two years ago. The current reading is the lowest since 2001.

Meanwhile, the share of Americans who view crime as an “extremely” or “very” serious problem has also dropped to 49%, down from 56% a year ago and 63% two years ago.

“We’re cleaning up our cities,” President Donald Trump said in a “60 Minutes” interview that aired this weekend. “You know, I campaigned on crime, but I’ve done a much better job on crime than I thought.”

Crime was dropping before Trump took office. The FBI’s annual crime report, released in August, showed violent crime decreased an estimated 4.5% nationally last year. Murders and non-negligent manslaughter decreased by close to 15%. Rapes fell about 5%. Aggravated assaults fell 3%. Robberies fell almost 9%.

Criminologist Alex Piquero said crime is a problem in the U.S. compared to other countries, but he said crime has also been trending in the right direction.

Piquero, a professor at the University of Miami and a former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, said the country is on track to record the lowest levels of homicide since the early 1960s.

“We’re moving in a really good direction in this country,” he said. “And that’s a credit to law enforcement and all the non-law enforcement agencies around the United States that are working together to drive down the crime problem.”

The Gallup poll found more Republicans (69%) than independents (45%) or Democrats (37%) view crime as an extremely or very serious problem. But all three groups are less likely to say crime is a big problem now than they were a couple of years ago.

Women are more concerned about crime, as are people who make less income. People who live in rural areas are more likely to view crime as a big problem than people living in either cities or suburbs.

Piquero said perception and reality often don’t match when it comes to crime.

Despite what crime trackers show, people are often inundated with stories and images of shootings, smash-and-grab robberies and other acts of violence on the news or in social media feeds.

The Gallup survey found that 31% of people are afraid to walk alone at night near their house. That’s an improvement from 40% a couple of years ago. Fewer people perceive more crime in their local areas.

Piquero said there are crime hot spots in some cities, but most people don’t need to be afraid to walk at night. Just stay aware of your surroundings.

“I’m just mindful of what I’m wearing, who I’m with, where I park my car, what establishments I walk into, and make sure I do all my best to not be alone,” he said. “And I think that’s just being smart when you’re out traveling or walking around places.”

Gallup found that identity theft is the top crime concern. Nearly 70% said they worry about becoming the victim of ID theft, while fewer than half expressed concerns about things like having their car stolen, their home broken into, or being assaulted on the street.

Piquero said Americans are justified to be concerned about ID theft, saying we “live our lives on credit cards, on our phones and on the internet.”

Every time a credit card is swiped or tapped at a gas pump or register, every time something is ordered online, there’s potential for someone to try and steal information.

“There’s only so much you can do to safeguard your information, but be mindful of how you put that information out there,” Piquero said.

Have a news tip? Contact Cory Smith at corysmith@sbgtv.com or at x.com/Cory_L_Smith. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

]]>
11777583 2025-11-04T09:17:08+00:00 2025-11-04T09:17:08+00:00